Tuesday, February 24, 2009

FXI - shorting China

I started scaling in to my short ideas now that we FINALLY had an up day. First set up is FXI, which is on the tip of a bearish rising wedge. A break of current consolidation then 23.30 level would confirm a new bearish intermediate-term trend.

The rally we had today had a relative average volume compared to median 20-day volume, according to Dr. Brett Steenbarger and compared to the shake out of the shorts on Feb. 13th volume is relatively thinner.

XLF, XHB and RKH lead the rally today which just means that its nothing more than a retracemet to slow down the intermediate term downtrend, since these also lead on down days.

I'm out of GLW since it refused to get back over its supporting trend line today.

Now GLW is probably a great short set up, but I'll pass since there are better set ups out there.

I reduced risk on ALXN since it finally had an up day and outperformed the market. the trend continues. I will now continue to add on weakness if ALXN stays over its supporting trend line.

I added a long bonds position in TLT:
I waited for a return to the trend line before entering. TLT is a pretty expensive stock though, so I'll be careful about scaling in because 300 shares is a full position for my budget. Now all I'm exposed to is 100. I don't like volatile triple digit stocks because there's less chances to scale in a tight budget like 300 shares.

A broken TED spread trend is my other rationale for this trade.

MRVL is my shining star today. Up 13%.
TDG is still stuck between supporting and resistance trend lines. This week will make or break it.
AVB rallied sharply today and is now looking like a good short opportunity again tomorrow.
Still waiting for TTC to touch 24 for me to short it.
DBA is holding pretty well and consolidating. I reduced exposure to 100 shares because I expect it to go back to the low 23's.

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