Monday, April 27, 2009

Photo Up Gap Down

It was a mixed day today, since it's "supposed" to tank weeks ago, SPY is being kept up by the Goldman scum once again...

but there's no limit to careless manipulation to keep news "bad" while keeping the pump going strong even without institutional participation:

A "confusion"/"misunderstanding" about a photo up plane flight triggered a wave of short lived fearful rumors of a 2nd 9/11 happening... but whose prices was all this meant to push down? airlines. that's who.

Worst performing sector today was trannies and its tracking ETF is IYT. Of all the stocks in IYT only 3 lead the decline: CAL, LUV, JBLU - yep, the airlines.

Oh and then there's the flu thing, sure. So far, not even a 2nd spread of the black plague can keep Goldman from pumping this market to absurd levels of overbought levels not seen in decades.

Saturday, April 18, 2009

MONtesanto - Genetically Modified Global Food Monopoly

I know traders should be cold and heartless when it comes to stock picking, but there are few companies that I choose not to buy regardless of the edge I find in the pattern/timing at the time. Among them are all fast food companies and ADM, WMT. Now added to the list is MON. Why?

Check out this lil eye opening movie: The Future of Food

But besides the ethical restriction, one of my rules for buying is to never buy patterns of higher highs and higher lows with no meaningful retracement that has a support line that's angle is sharper than 30 degrees, such as the pattern in MON chart AND the current pattern in the indexes lately. In my opinion, this pattern says that people in the know don't want to give incentive to those not in the know to get a part of their investment. This pattern tells me that those who move the market have no doubt about their investment and that leaves very little edge to me. The more doubt in the future of the business, the more edge is spread out to traders.

Friday, April 3, 2009

Weekly Review - Beaten and Bruised Bear

Right when Obama is proposing his good intentioned ways to stop bubbles, the market is being manipulated right under his nose, just like it was for hundreds of years. free market style.

BNI was a disaster. Right when I short it, of courst IYT has to have one of its best days ever. why not.

GSIC followed the indices, didn't work either. Maybe I was impatient, or just wanted to stop this loss while it was a minor scratch and not a big bloody mess.

SE was a failed energy trade that also turned from bear to bull.... sigh.

OLN is still working because it's still under 15.50 despite this huge stretch upward in the indices. added  more yesterday.

PCLN spiked up. A LOT. then it retraced the whole move and spiked up even more. It was a bull on steroids waiting to explode. I didn't have the stamina to ride this bull to my target since I held a bearish view on the indices and expected more downside. Sold too early.

Now PCLN is sitting right on a big resistance level. If the indices tank, PCLN could break the green diagonal and return to late '08 lows as support level, if we continue to drag on and on upward, PCLN will break out and soon won't be in the double digits very long.

QQQQ's are overbought... but only market makers decide when it rolls.
88% of nasdaq stocks are over their 50D MA's, McClellan is right where it was in January top, new highs divided by new lows indicator is at its highest level since the top of '07. 

I sold QQQQ 32 calls all the way up since Wednesday. I'll wait for the next dip. If there's no conviction to the bearish case I will take my loss here as well.