Saturday, February 28, 2009

Fibonacci fun with SPX

It was a tough, rough week of trading for me.

I made a nice profit on ALXN by exiting cautiously under its short term high at 39.22
And timing was close to perfect since the whole health care sector crapped itself this week after Obama's socialistic health care reform BS legislation.

I've had many bullish trade set ups in the health care sector, and now, all are kaput.
Needless to say, I was pissed Thursday. Now I need one of my walls repaired since I punched a hole in it after realizing that my my filled entries in MDT and AMAG are losing trades ruined by political garbage.
So long health care sector. Nice knowing ya.

The only bulls left are in technology now. SMH and XLK to be exact. You can argue there are the education stocks, sure, but I don't think those trends will last very long.

Anyway, I got interested in 168, 268 and 423% Fibonacci retracement levels lately because they have been proven to be consistently hit in many of stocks on my watchlist lately.
The August trough of '07 to '07 peak has produced a 423.6% fib level at 703.35, just another 30 points from where we are now. Notice the 168 fib level is very very close to the trough of March '08. This could be a big support level for SPX.
As to exits of this long swing trade, I drew the fib levels from March '08 trough to June '08 peak, and the 423.6% fib level there is at 835.71.

So buy at 703, sell at 835 could be my next market timing strategy if I also see the following:
Some exhaustion levels in volume, extremely low bullish percentage levels, NYSE new lows screaming higher, and divergence in TICK average compared to prior short term low.
At least 3 of 4 must happen and one of them has to be exhaustive volume fo sho.

Taking another look at fib levels, I went all the way back to the 1987 crash and placed some fib levels there:
Of course I did not rely on Prophet's inaccurate historical data, I relied on StockCharts.com's instead when I placed those fibs. So the 423.6% fib level of the '87 crash is 731.70, just roughtly 3 bucks lower than current SPX price.
731 was also an important support level in 1997.

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