NYSE New Highs Average vs. SPX New Highs Average Crossover

Goldman major divergence vs SPY now and during the great meltdown of '08

Speculating Fibs

I noticed lately a lot of stocks retrace their fib levels - 23.6, 38.2, 61.8, 78.6 - in ranges that with highs in an uptrend or lows in a downtrend that haven't been reached yet, or don't exist, hence speculative:

Here, for example, the SPY retraced at the 78.6, 38.2 and 23.6 levels without reaching the low of 102.69, so that level would be used as a potential buy/cover level on more downside

C's HFT machines accelerating the decline 9-24-09

High Frequency Trading machines keeping it 1 way streets with no chance of any kind of mean reversion.

SPY - Falling Wedge 9-18-09

This FALLING WEDGE with a supporting POC makes it seems obvious that there's more upside at least until 109, the top of the gap fill of Oct 16th big gap down.

but of course its easy to forget how overbought we are in the midst of a very sharp exhaustion period in a very stretched bear market rally...

Afterhours action 9-17-09

That's the most AH block order action i've seen in the last few weeks

Spooky Afterhours Block Trades after FOMC 8-12-09

SPY vs. SPX relative volumes

We are now at the price range of the biggest relative difference between SPY and SPX. Maybe the 4th possible explanation for this is that this is a long-term topping signal? ~33% more volume in SPX at this range than SPY.

TICK empy green space (missed) trade 6-10-09

I missed the trade because it i got no fill while, in hindsight, I could of chased it .25 higher and get filled... But The lesson - priceless.

New low buy target for SPY

We have an Bearish Evening Star on the weekly SPY chart. Not exactly encouraging for the bulls.

I survived this Quadruple Witching Stew

After a brutal Wednesday that wiped out 2 weeks of hard earned profits, I gained 80% back by the end of the week but also gained some gray hair as well.

I'm still convinced we will head lower but untill I see some real break downs I will keep being fully hedged with FAS even though it underperforms RKH and PNC on the way down but way outperforms on the way up.

It seems /ES is pretty much confirming a begining of a short term bearish trend so far:

If we did get the sell-on-the-news intermediate term top yesterday then I expect very little retracements on the way down, but will not add to my shorts unless we break the green line shown above and break the 76 support level.

If we do get another leg up I will add to RKH above 56 for a potential double top and a drop back under the broken peak to peak trend line while adding to my FAS hedge on dips. now even though the trend line is broken, it was broken once before and came right back in after a 1 week period of low volatility. 

I allow myself to add on weakness while staying hedged to protect gains.

Commitment of Traders Analysis for 3-10-09

OK so tomorrow we get a new COT report from the CFTC, so I know i'm late, but this is my first time analyzing a COT chart, so here it goes:

Large drops in open interest always happen at or very close to tops or bottoms. We are approaching a level of very high open interest and a sharp drop is imminent, from what this chart looks like anyway. another dose of 20,000 contracts and we're at the same level of Nov' 08 low's open interest. All this is happening while we supposedly already "bottomed" at the very evil 666 level. So does this mean the bottom happened near the upcoming open interest drop or is there another drop in price to coincide with open interest?

Also noticeable from this chart is the shift from net long to short net of large specs right at the top of Sep.' 09 (at least so far). (in blue) Hedgers (commercial) have been trading along with large spec as well.

And small speculators like myself, even though I don't touch the futures, are just buying all the way down to the abyss the full sized contract, SP, while following the large specs in the full sized SP by going net short at the Sep. '09 top as well:



It seems like ES contracts are used for hedging for large specs and for speculating for hedgers. ES Hedgers are aggressively increasing their shorting exposure near tops as well.

My head is spinning now, I think i'll give this one a rest.

PCLN - waiting for the dip after the break out

Long term, PCLN is a winner. Plenty of overhead resistance, but PCLN outperforms SPY most of the time. It typically forms a long term double bottom, then a cup and handle break out.
The long term supporting trend line was broken already last year and I expect it to break it again to form another double bottom like in 2003, then another cup and handle, then the supporting trend line will be a resistance trend line.
Short term, I'd wait for a retracement under 76 then buy the dip and sell at intermediate term resistance at 92.

Weekly Indicator review 2-16-09 --- 2-21-09

SPX bullish percentage divided by VIX ratio breaking its support line that started since the October's first trough,
Put/Call ratio divided by VIX is still trending down despite the lil bump this week.
SPX spread divided by TED spread has broke its supporting trend line since October as well. TED ratio (3 month treasuries divided by 3 month Libor instead of subtracted) is still trending well.
Financial sector bullish percentage is getting close to 5%, a bullish level in the last few months.
A confirming indicator, Euro/USD divided by SPX, has signaled a confirming sell signal on the SPX. So did McClellan divided by VIX.
New lows (green) are rising, but not at exhaustion levels of an intermediate bearish trend yet.

All signal that we are in the middle of a bearish intermediate term trend but we may retrace back above 800 in the SPX then its time to load up on the shorts.