Anatomy of my best trade ever

Today I had my best trade ever. Granted, I was extremely aggressive, putting 50% of my capital at risk overnight but even so it was the right call at the right time. It was a fade move on extremely bullish strength.

Why did I put so much capital at risk? the honest reason is because I wanted to gain what I lost in RKH and RTH, both killed my account lately. Another reason is because I knew I had to take advantage of this move while it lasted and it wasn't another one of those swing trades - odds were better for the overnight move and too many factors were in my favor today, unlike all my other trades in the last 4 months frankly.

The market forced me out of trading indexes because of the shameless manipulation of GS that turned the technical picture into a never ending cutthroat consecutive rising wedges pattern on anemic volume. It's a firefight of extremes that sets new guinness world records for overbought every other day. Only day traders can profit in this enviroment, so single stocks look more attractive right now. Lucky me I found a great set up right after getting stopped in those indexes.

PCLN

So I haven't been blogging as often as I used to lately. Maybe its laziness. Maybe its cuz of the exams even though last semester I blogged everyday exams or no exams. Lately I just feel comfortable with my risk management. Not an excuse, but still.

Anyway, PCLN has been very volatile today and I think its a shake out before another wave up.


It looks like there was a pretty good accumulation zone today at 75, which is where my fill was on the 2nd try. First I thought 75.75 was good, then realized it wasn't, so I didn't panic and waited for a bounce then got out. It retraced gradually and I originally expected to get in at a 61.8% fib retracement from the LOD to the top of the retracement, but then figured that wasn't going to happen so I raised my buy target above the 23.8% fib level which was 24.70.

If this was a 1$ scalp, It would of been a great trade. But its only the 1st of 3 expect buy targets:


But I'll probably just sell at the closest resistance since I expect another EWT wave 5 down in the S&P, so it all depends if today was the low for the next 2 weeks or not.

My gut feeling is that even though PCLN is long term bullish technically, it looks too good to be sustainable - what? its gaining more market share at double digits percentages every year?

The stock is really volatile and it has sharper rising angles than 30 degrees, which is what I'm comfortable with for sustainable rallies. This always leaves me with the finger on the trigger when buying for longer time frames than a few days.

Maybe this stock is one of the very few stocks left in the "hyped up more than what the true picture really is" category with fake figures and celebrity endorsements kind of deal. I don't know but this is why I won't ever get aggressive with PCLN for swing trades.

PCLN - waiting for the dip after the break out

Long term, PCLN is a winner. Plenty of overhead resistance, but PCLN outperforms SPY most of the time. It typically forms a long term double bottom, then a cup and handle break out.
The long term supporting trend line was broken already last year and I expect it to break it again to form another double bottom like in 2003, then another cup and handle, then the supporting trend line will be a resistance trend line.
Short term, I'd wait for a retracement under 76 then buy the dip and sell at intermediate term resistance at 92.