Commitment of Traders Analysis for 3-10-09

OK so tomorrow we get a new COT report from the CFTC, so I know i'm late, but this is my first time analyzing a COT chart, so here it goes:

Large drops in open interest always happen at or very close to tops or bottoms. We are approaching a level of very high open interest and a sharp drop is imminent, from what this chart looks like anyway. another dose of 20,000 contracts and we're at the same level of Nov' 08 low's open interest. All this is happening while we supposedly already "bottomed" at the very evil 666 level. So does this mean the bottom happened near the upcoming open interest drop or is there another drop in price to coincide with open interest?

Also noticeable from this chart is the shift from net long to short net of large specs right at the top of Sep.' 09 (at least so far). (in blue) Hedgers (commercial) have been trading along with large spec as well.

And small speculators like myself, even though I don't touch the futures, are just buying all the way down to the abyss the full sized contract, SP, while following the large specs in the full sized SP by going net short at the Sep. '09 top as well:



It seems like ES contracts are used for hedging for large specs and for speculating for hedgers. ES Hedgers are aggressively increasing their shorting exposure near tops as well.

My head is spinning now, I think i'll give this one a rest.