I survived this Quadruple Witching Stew

After a brutal Wednesday that wiped out 2 weeks of hard earned profits, I gained 80% back by the end of the week but also gained some gray hair as well.

I'm still convinced we will head lower but untill I see some real break downs I will keep being fully hedged with FAS even though it underperforms RKH and PNC on the way down but way outperforms on the way up.

It seems /ES is pretty much confirming a begining of a short term bearish trend so far:

If we did get the sell-on-the-news intermediate term top yesterday then I expect very little retracements on the way down, but will not add to my shorts unless we break the green line shown above and break the 76 support level.

If we do get another leg up I will add to RKH above 56 for a potential double top and a drop back under the broken peak to peak trend line while adding to my FAS hedge on dips. now even though the trend line is broken, it was broken once before and came right back in after a 1 week period of low volatility. 

I allow myself to add on weakness while staying hedged to protect gains.

VIX:New lows signaling end is near for this artificial rally

OK I had doubts this morning about the direction about the next 2-3 weeks.
Initially I went short a lil bit too early into yesterday's short covering/oversold spike rally, but financials and banks retraced low enough for me to reduce exposure and risk and be moderately short for a 1st of 3 entries swing trade.

Now that I've seen this lovely indicator:
I now have a much better picture of the topping range for this upward retracement, which is:
SPY tops between 75 and 78.5 range and then crashes back down to where it came from under the nefarious 666 level.

I'm short regional banks and PNC because of the very strong downward trend lines:


and I'm also short TTC because of the great set up if it finishes red today:
Since the up and down multi-day periods are so stretched out in the past 3-4 months and VIX is just really "apathetic" of dumps or rallies, so to speak, since its just consolidating within a tight range compared to october-november range - then I'm fully prepared for very little retracements down on the way up to worst case scenario of top at ~78.5 in the SPY.
FAS will be my hedging tool until then.

Also, AVB now looks like a tempting short but I rather stick with what I got now.