Showing posts with label ttc. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ttc. Show all posts

Friday, March 13, 2009

VIX:New lows signaling end is near for this artificial rally

OK I had doubts this morning about the direction about the next 2-3 weeks.
Initially I went short a lil bit too early into yesterday's short covering/oversold spike rally, but financials and banks retraced low enough for me to reduce exposure and risk and be moderately short for a 1st of 3 entries swing trade.

Now that I've seen this lovely indicator:
I now have a much better picture of the topping range for this upward retracement, which is:
SPY tops between 75 and 78.5 range and then crashes back down to where it came from under the nefarious 666 level.

I'm short regional banks and PNC because of the very strong downward trend lines:


and I'm also short TTC because of the great set up if it finishes red today:
Since the up and down multi-day periods are so stretched out in the past 3-4 months and VIX is just really "apathetic" of dumps or rallies, so to speak, since its just consolidating within a tight range compared to october-november range - then I'm fully prepared for very little retracements down on the way up to worst case scenario of top at ~78.5 in the SPY.
FAS will be my hedging tool until then.

Also, AVB now looks like a tempting short but I rather stick with what I got now.

Sunday, February 22, 2009

TTC - short idea


Keeping TTC on the watchlist for short ideas since it closed under the 61.8 fib level on heavy volume. With enough selling pressure after this bounce in the indexes, TTC could be sliced in half because of very weak support area between 24 and 11. Weak but not an island reversal gap, so it would be better to scale in after break down of key support levels under 24 than go "all in" right away. It could take a few months or even over a year till TTC reaches 11.