Friday, March 13, 2009

VIX:New lows signaling end is near for this artificial rally

OK I had doubts this morning about the direction about the next 2-3 weeks.
Initially I went short a lil bit too early into yesterday's short covering/oversold spike rally, but financials and banks retraced low enough for me to reduce exposure and risk and be moderately short for a 1st of 3 entries swing trade.

Now that I've seen this lovely indicator:
I now have a much better picture of the topping range for this upward retracement, which is:
SPY tops between 75 and 78.5 range and then crashes back down to where it came from under the nefarious 666 level.

I'm short regional banks and PNC because of the very strong downward trend lines:


and I'm also short TTC because of the great set up if it finishes red today:
Since the up and down multi-day periods are so stretched out in the past 3-4 months and VIX is just really "apathetic" of dumps or rallies, so to speak, since its just consolidating within a tight range compared to october-november range - then I'm fully prepared for very little retracements down on the way up to worst case scenario of top at ~78.5 in the SPY.
FAS will be my hedging tool until then.

Also, AVB now looks like a tempting short but I rather stick with what I got now.

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