Monday, May 25, 2009

Sunday, May 24, 2009

RCI - possible scenarios for swing trades

I have a few more goodies that I filtered out in recent scans. Since I have discovered FINVIZ doesn't work on my Chrome browser for some reason, I haven't used FINVIZ in too long. While looking for good swing trading stocks I found one stock that fits the bill: RCI
So I had to come up with possible scenarios for future entries that could fit different biases.
There's a double top scenario (cyan), continued bullish momentum (green) and bearish scenario (red):

Can't have enough of that FINVIZ

Saturday, May 23, 2009

NEM = GOLD / DOLLAR INDEX ratio?




Very similar, almost like a SSO is to SPY.

Thursday, May 21, 2009

FFIV - bearish dejavu?

OK I had a pretty good run this month after realizing I should stop shorting into the prolonged short squeezery rally. Pretty much all about 1 trick ponies strategy of stocks that trade above upper Boillinger Band AND upper Keltner Channel. Worked pretty well, finally came out the sideways action of loss/recovery/loss/recovery in my account.

So here's a stock that is not a perfect set up because it didn't really trade above both Keltner and BB, just barely there. It also doesn't trade in the wavy 5-10 days average up then down swings which increase the odds of reversals after a prolonged rally. BUT! there's a dejavu moment here I just found out after I got folled short already:

Here's the current FFIV chart:

and here's FFIV's one last minor wave before the top of '07, 


Notice the similarities: sideways action after a prolonged rally, in which institutions distributed after a good run, then the following dump:

Of course, we're dealing with different time frames here, in '08 it was a few weeks, not 2-3 days like now, but the concept is the same, the pattern is the same and the volume by price if very similar.

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

new set ups

Alright, so the indexes keep squeezing out any kind of swing trade edge, so I scanned ALL  of S&P 400 midcap and Russel 2000 small caps to find set ups and here they are:


Thursday, May 7, 2009

Discretionary/staples ratio

Here's a recommendation from the great Jeff Pietsch of Market Rewind in his chatroom, which I visit every day:


Wednesday, May 6, 2009

Anatomy of my best trade ever


Today I had my best trade ever. Granted, I was extremely aggressive, putting 50% of my capital at risk overnight but even so it was the right call at the right time. It was a fade move on extremely bullish strength.

Why did I put so much capital at risk? the honest reason is because I wanted to gain what I lost in RKH and RTH, both killed my account lately. Another reason is because I knew I had to take advantage of this move while it lasted and it wasn't another one of those swing trades - odds were better for the overnight move and too many factors were in my favor today, unlike all my other trades in the last 4 months frankly.

The market forced me out of trading indexes because of the shameless manipulation of GS that turned the technical picture into a never ending cutthroat consecutive rising wedges pattern on anemic volume. It's a firefight of extremes that sets new guinness world records for overbought every other day. Only day traders can profit in this enviroment, so single stocks look more attractive right now. Lucky me I found a great set up right after getting stopped in those indexes.