OK I had a pretty good run this month after realizing I should stop shorting into the prolonged short squeezery rally. Pretty much all about 1 trick ponies strategy of stocks that trade above upper Boillinger Band AND upper Keltner Channel. Worked pretty well, finally came out the sideways action of loss/recovery/loss/recovery in my account.
So here's a stock that is not a perfect set up because it didn't really trade above both Keltner and BB, just barely there. It also doesn't trade in the wavy 5-10 days average up then down swings which increase the odds of reversals after a prolonged rally. BUT! there's a dejavu moment here I just found out after I got folled short already:
Here's the current FFIV chart:
and here's FFIV's one last minor wave before the top of '07,
Notice the similarities: sideways action after a prolonged rally, in which institutions distributed after a good run, then the following dump:
Of course, we're dealing with different time frames here, in '08 it was a few weeks, not 2-3 days like now, but the concept is the same, the pattern is the same and the volume by price if very similar.
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