Sunday, July 5, 2009

Chanos inspired watchlist of long term shorts

Here's the article about James Chanos, the infamously successful short biased hedge fund manager who mentioned he is looking into shorting American healthcare and defense stocks as well as Chinese infastructure stocks.

A quick look at finviz screens revealed therre aren't many of these stocks: no chinese infastructure stocks trade in American stock exchanges, at least as far as I know, but there are a few defense and healthcare stocks available to take a close look at. One of them that sparked my interest from a technical perspective is WLP!:


Fibonnaci confluence on the weekly chart points out 51.50 as a key level which was touched last week as well as 2 weeks ago. Right above this level starts an unfilled gap zone all the way up to
67.That's the bull case.

The bear case, at least from a purely technical perspective as I know nothing about the fundamental case, is if breaks the middle line of the rising channel it started forming since March it would probably be a great swing short trade.

Another bearish scenario is that it starts filling the gap, reaches 53-55 range, breaks both BB and Keltner channels then tanks, leaving the rest of the gap unfilled. This is my favorite scenario because it fits in the repeatitive theme of healthcare stocks being the least bearish in the recent downturn on down days. So while most sectors will continue to tank, WLP will form a higher high but will fail to fill the gap.

As to Chinese infastructure plays, the only stock that's close to that is a coal stock YZC which I'm already short as a technical Head and Shoulders play before bumping into that article.

As for American defense plays, ATK looks like a good short right now:

RTN also looks interesting:

and these are NOT necessarily what Chanos is shorting, just my personal picks from those sectors that look technically bearish in the long term.

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