Thursday, March 12, 2009

PCLN

So I haven't been blogging as often as I used to lately. Maybe its laziness. Maybe its cuz of the exams even though last semester I blogged everyday exams or no exams. Lately I just feel comfortable with my risk management. Not an excuse, but still.

Anyway, PCLN has been very volatile today and I think its a shake out before another wave up.


It looks like there was a pretty good accumulation zone today at 75, which is where my fill was on the 2nd try. First I thought 75.75 was good, then realized it wasn't, so I didn't panic and waited for a bounce then got out. It retraced gradually and I originally expected to get in at a 61.8% fib retracement from the LOD to the top of the retracement, but then figured that wasn't going to happen so I raised my buy target above the 23.8% fib level which was 24.70.

If this was a 1$ scalp, It would of been a great trade. But its only the 1st of 3 expect buy targets:


But I'll probably just sell at the closest resistance since I expect another EWT wave 5 down in the S&P, so it all depends if today was the low for the next 2 weeks or not.

My gut feeling is that even though PCLN is long term bullish technically, it looks too good to be sustainable - what? its gaining more market share at double digits percentages every year?

The stock is really volatile and it has sharper rising angles than 30 degrees, which is what I'm comfortable with for sustainable rallies. This always leaves me with the finger on the trigger when buying for longer time frames than a few days.

Maybe this stock is one of the very few stocks left in the "hyped up more than what the true picture really is" category with fake figures and celebrity endorsements kind of deal. I don't know but this is why I won't ever get aggressive with PCLN for swing trades.

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