Took another loss today. -9 ticks damage. I was expecting some kind of 30-40 tick bounce as it did before this major structural change. Well the bounce was very muted and didn't even reach the morning low, which was my target. I heavily relied on the tape since it was so useful to me in the past quarter. I saw some supposedly capitulative volume on 1min chart, a reversal signal and several retests of low but it kept bumping into the same lower high under morning low and eventually returned back to low so I had to cut my loss. Then it broke to a new low and made another leg down with another muted bounce afterwards.
My rationale for buying was because there were several nice bounces overnight and that the theme is still one of squeezing the shorts, hence all bounces should be shallow. *buzz!* WRONG! mean reversion was muted and Euro kept sliding down.
I was expecting confirming indicator in the tape in the form of gradually increasing sell orders to follow the rise in price. (this has happened last week in a very trendy up move on the way up to upper 1.23s). Didn't happen. After the big clusters of long stops getting hit, instead of typical massive buy orders to gradually work into the tape, there were just less frequent long stops getting hit instead.