Fibonacci fun with SPX

It was a tough, rough week of trading for me.

I made a nice profit on ALXN by exiting cautiously under its short term high at 39.22
And timing was close to perfect since the whole health care sector crapped itself this week after Obama's socialistic health care reform BS legislation.

I've had many bullish trade set ups in the health care sector, and now, all are kaput.
Needless to say, I was pissed Thursday. Now I need one of my walls repaired since I punched a hole in it after realizing that my my filled entries in MDT and AMAG are losing trades ruined by political garbage.
So long health care sector. Nice knowing ya.

The only bulls left are in technology now. SMH and XLK to be exact. You can argue there are the education stocks, sure, but I don't think those trends will last very long.

Anyway, I got interested in 168, 268 and 423% Fibonacci retracement levels lately because they have been proven to be consistently hit in many of stocks on my watchlist lately.
The August trough of '07 to '07 peak has produced a 423.6% fib level at 703.35, just another 30 points from where we are now. Notice the 168 fib level is very very close to the trough of March '08. This could be a big support level for SPX.
As to exits of this long swing trade, I drew the fib levels from March '08 trough to June '08 peak, and the 423.6% fib level there is at 835.71.

So buy at 703, sell at 835 could be my next market timing strategy if I also see the following:
Some exhaustion levels in volume, extremely low bullish percentage levels, NYSE new lows screaming higher, and divergence in TICK average compared to prior short term low.
At least 3 of 4 must happen and one of them has to be exhaustive volume fo sho.

Taking another look at fib levels, I went all the way back to the 1987 crash and placed some fib levels there:
Of course I did not rely on Prophet's inaccurate historical data, I relied on StockCharts.com's instead when I placed those fibs. So the 423.6% fib level of the '87 crash is 731.70, just roughtly 3 bucks lower than current SPX price.
731 was also an important support level in 1997.

FXI - shorting China

I started scaling in to my short ideas now that we FINALLY had an up day. First set up is FXI, which is on the tip of a bearish rising wedge. A break of current consolidation then 23.30 level would confirm a new bearish intermediate-term trend.

The rally we had today had a relative average volume compared to median 20-day volume, according to Dr. Brett Steenbarger and compared to the shake out of the shorts on Feb. 13th volume is relatively thinner.

XLF, XHB and RKH lead the rally today which just means that its nothing more than a retracemet to slow down the intermediate term downtrend, since these also lead on down days.

I'm out of GLW since it refused to get back over its supporting trend line today.

Now GLW is probably a great short set up, but I'll pass since there are better set ups out there.

I reduced risk on ALXN since it finally had an up day and outperformed the market. the trend continues. I will now continue to add on weakness if ALXN stays over its supporting trend line.

I added a long bonds position in TLT:
I waited for a return to the trend line before entering. TLT is a pretty expensive stock though, so I'll be careful about scaling in because 300 shares is a full position for my budget. Now all I'm exposed to is 100. I don't like volatile triple digit stocks because there's less chances to scale in a tight budget like 300 shares.

A broken TED spread trend is my other rationale for this trade.

MRVL is my shining star today. Up 13%.
TDG is still stuck between supporting and resistance trend lines. This week will make or break it.
AVB rallied sharply today and is now looking like a good short opportunity again tomorrow.
Still waiting for TTC to touch 24 for me to short it.
DBA is holding pretty well and consolidating. I reduced exposure to 100 shares because I expect it to go back to the low 23's.

TTC - short idea

Keeping TTC on the watchlist for short ideas since it closed under the 61.8 fib level on heavy volume. With enough selling pressure after this bounce in the indexes, TTC could be sliced in half because of very weak support area between 24 and 11. Weak but not an island reversal gap, so it would be better to scale in after break down of key support levels under 24 than go "all in" right away. It could take a few months or even over a year till TTC reaches 11.